2013 Championship Challenge Week 16

Sunday, September 1
GAA Football All-Ireland Senior Championship Semi-Final
Dublin v Kerry, Croke Park, 3.30pm

Lets start with all the talk of history and rivalry and the great games of the past between Dublin and Kerry.  Was the semi final meeting in 1977 between the two counties in fact the graetest game of Gaelic Football played or is the nostalgia blurring our vision?  Or was Maurice Fitzgerald's equalising point from the sideline against the Dubs in Thurles one of the greatest scores of all time?

The strength of their rivalry has been revitalised time and time again by epic championship duels. Sunday's All-Ireland semi-final will be the 27th time the counties have faced each other in the championship, and all but a handful of their meetings have been in either All-Ireland semi-finals or finals.

But that was the past so lets now concentrate on the here and now and the history that is now being created by these bunch of players even though age old rivals.  Prior to dissecting the merits of each county however lets firstly disgard this myth that this Kerry team is an ageing team and that will be the single biggest reason why they will not ultimately be able to cope with the pace and power of the Dubs on Sunday.  After 70 minutes on Sunday Eamon Fitzmaurice's charges may not have been good enough to topple their opponents but it can be gauranteed that it will not be because of ageing limbs.  Looking at the age profile of the six defenders and goalkeeper named to start on Sunday, only two of them namely Tomas & Marc O'Se are over the 30 years bracket and one feels that there are many miles left in these two great servants yet.  The midfield pairing are in their early to mid twenties and save for Paul Galvin in the forward division, and the calibre of the remaining players, they can hardly be classified as over the hill.

This will be the fourth championship meeting between the sides in the last seven seasons. In the 2009 All-Ireland quarter-final Kerry spectacularly returned to form with a 1-24 to 1-7 thrashing of Dublin with manager Pat Gilroy memorably describing his team as being like "startled earwigs" in the opening blitz in which Kerry destroyed them.  Two years later though, in the All Irealnd Final of 2011, when the Kingdom looked to be heading for another All-Ireland title with less than ten minutes to go until Kevin McManamon's goal changed everything and Stephen Cluxton's injury-time winner from a free sealed victory for the Dubs and their first All Ireland title since 1995.  For men used to winning like Colm Cooper, Declan O'Sullivan, Paul Galvin and the Ó Sé brothers it was a horrendous way to lose an All-Ireland final, and whether they admit it or not, Sunday's game is a huge chance for them and the rest of their teammates to exact revenge for that most bitter of defeats.

Looking at both teams form so far this season, Dublin must be lauded for their consistency all through, particularly in what is Jim Gavin's first year in charge. They defeated Westmeath, Kildare and Meath on their way to the Leinster title, recording an impressive average winning margin of 13 points in the process. They looked comfortable in their win over Cork in the All-Ireland quarter-final, and never really looked like losing to the Rebels, but the success of the long ball tactic by the Rebels in on the Dublin fullback line where Ciaran Sheehan was most impressive, will surely be an area that the Kingdom will look to target.  Kerry, on the other hand, struggled badly in the early part of the league season, including a 1-11 to 0-4 loss to Dublin in Killarney, but turned the corner with victories in their final three games to avoid relegation, just, and this was ironically helped by Paul Mannion's last minute score for the Dubs against Donegal. Those early season struggles seem a long time ago now, and it's worth keeping that period in mind when considering how Éamonn Fitzmaurice has fared in his debut season as Kerry boss.  They subsequently breezed through Munster with the second half of the Munster final victory over Cork the only time they wobbled in the province in 2013. Although they were far from at their best in the All-Ireland quarter-final win over Cavan, that was the type of game that they just wanted to get through without showing their full hand, particularly when they knew going in to the game that they would be meeting the Dubs once more in the semi final.

Looking to the tactics briefly, all of the media attention seems to be concentrated on the pace and power of the Dublin team and in particular wing back Jack McCaffrey who has had a spectacular debut season so far.  Is it too simplistic to think that the way to counteract that by Kerry is to put a speed merchant like Darren O'Sullivan on him and try and put him on the back foot?  Will Bernard Brogan be as quiet again as he has been all season or is this the game where he will explode back on the scene once more?  Can Kerry target Stephen Cluxton's kick outs which they did to such success in the 2011 decider?  Can Kerry get a foothold in midfield and put pressure on Cian O'Sullivan who is not a natural midfielder and is utilised more there for his ability to get up and down the pitch and link the play?  And there has been much media speculation this week as to whether Colm Cooper may switch from the forty into the corner for this one. He is named at 11, but perceived weaknesses in the Dublin full-back line have lead to suggestions that he should be deployed closer to goal.   Can Sptephen Cluxton continue his remarkable scoring rate from frees and 45's so far this season?

The absence of Killian Young and Aidan O'Mahony through injury leaves a relatively inexperienced Kerry defence, and certainly Sunday will be a huge day for the likes of Shane Enright, Fionn Fitzgerald, Mark Griffin and Peter Crowley. However, the presence of Marc and Tomás Ó Sé at right-full-back and right-half-back is massive.  For Dublin, there is no major changes to a side that has had a very consistent look all season. The main selection issue was in attack, where Paddy Andrews has got the nod ahead of the impressive Dean Rock with Bryan Cullen also kept in reserve.

With the Kingdom coming in to this encounter somewhat under the radar and the bitter memories of the 2011 defeat coupled with a desire in the Kerry players to win another All Ireland that should not be underestimated, take them to just edge this titanic tussle.

Verdict:  Kerry       Odds: 21/10